Brasileirão title race: Flamengo three clear of Palmeiras with five rounds left

With five rounds left, the Brasileirão has become a two-club race. Flamengo lead on 73 points after a 4-1 win at Vasco on Thursday, three ahead of Palmeiras, who were held 0-0 at Santos the night before. Cruzeiro, third on 57, can reach at most 72 points – so after 33 rounds the title will go either to Rio de Janeiro or to São Paulo. And the two contenders still have to meet: Palmeiras host Flamengo in round 36 on 21 November.

The table after 33 rounds

Pos	Team	Played	Points	Goal difference	Max. possible
1	Flamengo	33	73	+40	88
2	Palmeiras	33	70	+34	85
3	Cruzeiro	33	57	+6	72
4	Fluminense	33	54	+10	69
5	Athletico PR	33	54	+10	69

Live standings: Brasileirão table.

The first tiebreaker in the Brasileirão is the number of wins, not goal difference – and that also favours Flamengo, who have 22 wins to Palmeiras' 20. In practice, Palmeiras need to finish with more points, not just the same total.

Form: Flamengo hit their stride, Palmeiras stall

Flamengo's derby win was their fourth league victory in a row. Pedro scored twice in the first half – his first goal since 20 September and his 28th of the season – and Samuel Lino added two more after the break. Vasco had briefly equalised through Alan Lescano.

Palmeiras could not respond. The goalless draw at Santos cost Abel Ferreira's side two points at exactly the wrong moment, turning a one-point gap into three. Flamengo, coached since March by Leonardo Jardim, who replaced Filipe Luís, now control the run-in.

The run-in: five games each

Round	Date (provisional)	Flamengo	Palmeiras
34	4/5 Nov	Grêmio (home, Wed 19:30 BRT)	Remo (home, Thu 19:30 BRT)
35	18 Nov	Athletico PR (home)	Cruzeiro (away)
36	21 Nov	Palmeiras (away)	Flamengo (home)
37	29 Nov	Coritiba (away)	Chapecoense (away)
38	2 Dec	Chapecoense (home)	Coritiba (home)

Times in Brasília time (BRT). The CBF has not yet confirmed the times for rounds 37 and 38.

On paper, Flamengo have the kinder schedule: three home games at the Maracanã, plus trips to Palmeiras and Coritiba. Palmeiras face the two hardest fixtures on either list back to back – away at third-placed Cruzeiro, then the head-to-head. Both contenders end against the same two sides, Coritiba and bottom club Chapecoense (21 points).

There is also the calendar. Palmeiras play Vasco in the Copa do Brasil semi-finals on 1 and 8 November and face Estudiantes in the Copa Libertadores final in Montevideo on 28 November – one day before round 37. Flamengo have no such distractions in the league run-in.

When can Flamengo clinch it?

• Earliest: round 35 (18 November). If Flamengo win both their next games and Palmeiras lose both, the gap would be nine points with three games left – and Flamengo would also have more wins.
• Most likely deciding point: round 36. If both teams win their next two games, a Flamengo win at Palmeiras on 21 November would make them champions, because even matching their points total would not be enough for Palmeiras on wins.
• Palmeiras' path: win the head-to-head and hope Flamengo drop points elsewhere. A win in São Paulo would take three points off the gap in one evening.

Our take

Flamengo are clear favourites. They have the points, the tiebreaker, the home games and a quieter calendar. For Palmeiras, the head-to-head on 21 November is not just a big game – it is the only realistic way back, and it falls between a Copa do Brasil semi-final and a Libertadores final. Abel Ferreira will have to manage his squad more carefully than Jardim. If Palmeiras do win in São Paulo, though, the title race would become very open again in the last two rounds.

Follow every Brasileirão game live on EZCO – scores, goals and the live table, plus the Flamengo and Palmeiras team pages.